Session Overview: Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura, University of Tokyo (15 minutes)

The ultimate scientific goal of ACES is to develop a realistic unified 
simulation model for the complete earthquake generation process and 
cycles in the Asia-Pacific region, which consists of regional models in 
each of the different tectonic settings; transform plate boundaries, 
subduction zones, and intraplate regions. Macroscopic Working Group (WG2)
directly contribute to the achievement of this goal. The entire process 
of earthquake generation consists of tectonic loading due to relative 
plate motion, quasi-static rupture nucleation, dynamic rupture 
propagation and stop, and fault lithification and healing. Propagation 
of dynamic ruputure and seismic waves and interaction of complex fault 
systems will be discussed in the closely related sessions, 2.2 and 2.3, 
of WG2. Therefore, in session 2.1, we will focus on the macroscopic 
modelling of earthquake cycles based on continuum mechanics and tectonic 
environments for earthquake generation. The key scientific issues 
pertinent to this session are as follows:

1. Macroscopic modelling of earthquake cycles and predictability of earthquakes
2. Crustal structure and tectonic environments for earthquake generation
3. Physical process of tectonic stress accumulation and release during earthquake cycles

1. Macroscopic modelling of earthquake cycles and predictability of earthquakes:

So far many macroscopic models of earthquake cycles have been proposed.

• Is the concept of earthquake cycles reasonable?
• Can large earthquakes be separated from smaller earthquakes?
• How should we describe the basic equations governing the earthquake generation cycle?

2. Crustal structure and tectonic environments for earthquake generation:

The processes of earthquake generation strongly depend on fault geometry,
frictional properties, and tectonic environments.

• What are the key parameters controlling the earthquake generation processes?

3. Physical process of tectonic stress accumulation and release during earthquake cycles:

From a macroscopic point of view the earthquake generation cycle can be
regarded as the process of tectonic stress accumulation and release.

• How can we model this process reasonably?

Session Plenary: (1 Hour)

Donald L. Turcotte, Cornell University (30 min. incl. 10 min. discussion)
The physics of earthquakes - Is it a statistical problem?

Kelin Wang, Geological Survey of Canada (30 min. incl. 10 min.discussion)
Loading a subduction fault in earthquake cycles

Detailed Session: (2.5 hours)

1. Macroscopic modelling of earthquake cycles and predictability of earthquakes

Naoyuki Kato and Tomowo Hirasawa (15 minutes)
(To be presented in session 2.3)
Effect of an outer-rise earthquake on seismic cycle of large intraplate
earthquakes estimated from an instability model based on friction mechanics

Comments and discussion (30 minutes)

2. Crustal structure and tectonic environments for earthquake generation

Naoshi Hirata, Takaya Iwasaki, Hideo Aochi, and Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura 
(15 minutes)
Modeling of plate boundaries and intra-arc active fault systems in and
around Japanese islands

Comments and discussion (30 minutes)

3. Physical process of tectonic stress accumulation and release during
   earthquake cycles

Toshinori Sato and Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura (15 minutes)
Modelling stress accumulation and crustal deformation associated with
earthquake cycles at plate boundaries

Chihiro Hashimoto and Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura (15 minutes)
Physical modelling of tectonic loading processes at transcurrent plate
boundaries

Shoichi Yoshioka (15 minutes)
Three-dimensional numerical simulation of displacement and stress fields
after the 1944 Tonankai and the 1946 Nankai earthquakes

Comments and discussion (30 minutes)