Physical modelling and simulation of the earthquake cycle
Convenors: M. Matsu'ura (Japan), D. Turcotte (USA), K. Wang (Canada)
Session Overview: Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura, University of Tokyo (15 minutes)
The ultimate scientific goal of ACES is to develop a realistic unified simulation model for the complete earthquake generation process and cycles in the Asia-Pacific region, which consists of regional models in each of the different tectonic settings; transform plate boundaries, subduction zones, and intraplate regions. Macroscopic Working Group (WG2) directly contribute to the achievement of this goal. The entire process of earthquake generation consists of tectonic loading due to relative plate motion, quasi-static rupture nucleation, dynamic rupture propagation and stop, and fault lithification and healing. Propagation of dynamic ruputure and seismic waves and interaction of complex fault systems will be discussed in the closely related sessions, 2.2 and 2.3, of WG2. Therefore, in session 2.1, we will focus on the macroscopic modelling of earthquake cycles based on continuum mechanics and tectonic environments for earthquake generation. The key scientific issues pertinent to this session are as follows:
1. Macroscopic modelling of earthquake cycles and predictability of earthquakes:
So far many macroscopic models of earthquake cycles have been proposed.
2. Crustal structure and tectonic environments for earthquake generation:
The processes of earthquake generation strongly depend on fault geometry, frictional properties, and tectonic environments.
3. Physical process of tectonic stress accumulation and release during earthquake cycles:
From a macroscopic point of view the earthquake generation cycle can be regarded as the process of tectonic stress accumulation and release.
Session Plenary: (1 Hour)
Donald L. Turcotte, Cornell University (30 min. incl. 10 min. discussion) The physics of earthquakes - Is it a statistical problem? Kelin Wang, Geological Survey of Canada (30 min. incl. 10 min.discussion) Loading a subduction fault in earthquake cycles
Detailed Session: (2.5 hours)
1. Macroscopic modelling of earthquake cycles and predictability of earthquakes Naoyuki Kato and Tomowo Hirasawa (15 minutes) (To be presented in session 2.3) Effect of an outer-rise earthquake on seismic cycle of large intraplate earthquakes estimated from an instability model based on friction mechanics Comments and discussion (30 minutes) 2. Crustal structure and tectonic environments for earthquake generation Naoshi Hirata, Takaya Iwasaki, Hideo Aochi, and Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura (15 minutes) Modeling of plate boundaries and intra-arc active fault systems in and around Japanese islands Comments and discussion (30 minutes) 3. Physical process of tectonic stress accumulation and release during earthquake cycles Toshinori Sato and Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura (15 minutes) Modelling stress accumulation and crustal deformation associated with earthquake cycles at plate boundaries Chihiro Hashimoto and Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura (15 minutes) Physical modelling of tectonic loading processes at transcurrent plate boundaries Shoichi Yoshioka (15 minutes) Three-dimensional numerical simulation of displacement and stress fields after the 1944 Tonankai and the 1946 Nankai earthquakes Comments and discussion (30 minutes)