Detailed Session Information

Session 5.1:

General session for earthquake forecasting and hazard quantification

Convenors: D. Jackson (USA), X.C. Yin (China), Akio Yoshida (Japan)


Session Overview: Dave Jackson (15 minutes)

An important goal for earthquake studies is to predict observable 
features of the "earthquake system", that is the interacting material 
properties and state variables that cause earthquakes and are affected 
by earthquakes. Accurate and specific predictions of individual large 
earthquakes may be impossible in the foreseeable future (a much debated 
proposition), but there are many other types of prediction, in the 
broader sense, that would have practical benefits and would help to 
advance our understanding of earthquake science. Such "predictions" 
include probabilistic forecasts of future earthquake activity, 
predictions of displacements on specific faults or fault groups, 
predictions of ground motion that would result from hypothetical future 
earthquakes, and predictions that geophysical phenomena such as 
accelerated deformation or variations in seismicity should presage large 
earthquakes. The session will address questions related to the 
predictablility of features of the earthquake system and the use of 
computer models to aid in constructing and testing such predictions, and 
the expectations that can rightly be placed on earthquake analogs such 
as laboratory and computer models.

Session Plenary: (1 Hour)

David D. Jackson, Xiang-Chu Yin, Akio Yoshida, and Jacobo Bielak will 
address the following specific questions:
  1. How well can we forecast earthquakes at present?
  2. How can earthquake predictions and forecasts be tested against past and future earthquakes?
  3. For hypothetical precursors, how detailed should physical models be before trying to apply them? With the loading/unloading response ratio method, for example, is it necessary to understand how and why the sensitivity varies from place to place, before trying to apply the method?
  4. How much detail is needed in the description of an earthquake to predict the ground motion?
  5. How much integration of phenomenology and theory is necessary in order to forecast earthquake behaviour using computer models? If earthquake precursors exist, does their predictive power depend on details of the state of stress? Should computer models of earthquake behaviour be expected to simulate the appearance of these precursors, and if so, which ones?
  6. Which phenomena should be modeled explicitly, and which stochastically? For example, should computer models be expected to predict accurately the locations, sizes, and focal mechanisms of all earthquakes over a given size? What is that size? Are predictions of the number and size distribution adequate?
  7. Is there any such thing as an "earthquake cycle?" If earthquakes are not periodic, in some sense, does it matter in drawing conclusions from computer models based on an earthquake cycle?
  8. Are there some features of earthquake systems that can be predicted successfully and usefully, short of predicting the actual times, locations, and magnitudes of individual events? How can such features be defined rigorously, so that prediction is meaningful?

Detailed Session: (2 Hours 45 mins)

David D. Jackson and Yan Kagan (10 mins)
Global Earthquake Potential, 1999

Zhou Shengkui, Wang Chengmin and Ma Li (10 mins)
Application of Artificial Intelligence in Earthquake Forecasting

Ma Li, Zhu Lieyuan and Shi Yaolin (10 mins)
Attempts at using seismicity indicators for the prediction of large 
earthquakes by genetic algorithm-neural network method.

Jean-Bernard Minster and Nadya Williams  (10 mins)
Systematic Global Testing of Intermediate-Term Earthquake Prediction 
Algorithms

Akio Yoshida and Kohji Hosono (10 mins)
Evaluation of spatio-temporal seismicity change

XiangChu Yin, XueZhong Cheng, YuCang Wang, HaiTao Wang, KeYin Peng, 
Yongxian Zhang, and JianCang Zhuang (10 mins)
Development of A New Approach for Earthquake Prediction: 
Load/Unload Response Ratio

Kevin McCue (10 mins)
The Cause of Australian Intraplate Tectonism

Peter Mora and David Place (10 mins)
Accelerating energy release prior to large events in simulated 
earthquake cycles: implications for earthquake forecasting

Michael Winter, Steven Jaume and Russell Cuthbertson (10 mins)
Determination of site response and attenuation in Brisbane, Australia

Fabien Coutel and Peter Mora (10 mins)
Site amplification quantification through simulation of ground motion

Discussion and comments (65 minutes)